Optimistic about global semiconductor momentum next year, analysts estimate TSMC will grow by 25%
TechNewsTechnology News
December 20, 2024
Author MoneyDJ
December 20, 2024
Author MoneyDJ
Looking forward to the semiconductor market next year (2025), Chen Huiming, a well-known semiconductor analyst and now a managing partner of Hong Kong Juxin Capital, said today that global semiconductors will still grow by 12.5% in 2025 driven by AI, of which TSMC’s revenue is expected to increase again With a growth of 25%, its growth momentum next year will remain strong and will drive the performance of Taiwan stocks next year.
When Chen Huiming released an analysis of the development of the global semiconductor and AI industries in 2025 today, he pointed out that in the current semiconductor industry, the competition and development of TSMC and Intel have become the focus, and TSMC will continue to lead in advanced processes and capital expenditures. It is estimated that TSMC will have capital next year. Expenditure will reach US$38 billion, and revenue next year will grow by about 25%. TSMC’s capital expenditure is expected to reach US$70 billion in 2030. In the promotion of 2nm and 3nm processes, TSMC has obvious market share and technological advantages; It can be said that there are no dark clouds in TSMC's future prospects. The only dark cloud may be the "White House". In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor used to be "Apple is good and Taiwan is good", but now due to the huge capital expenditures of the top four CSPs (cloud service providers) in the United States, the demand for ASICs is heating up, and Taiwan and the United States are highly cooperating in the supply chain, it will become "CSP is good" in the future. , Taiwan will follow.”
Regarding China's semiconductors, Chen Huiming said that China's semiconductor industry has gradually increased its market share driven by the domestic substitution policy. Companies such as SMIC have made certain progress in technology and production capacity. Although they are still on par with leading international companies in terms of advanced processes, There is a gap, but its influence in the market cannot be underestimated.
As for the impact of the US government's sanctions on Chinese semiconductors, Chen Huiming said that from the perspective of the United States and Taiwan, it may not be as good as imagined; SMIC has benefited from domestic substitution, and the European and American markets only account for 10% of its revenue, but in the third quarter of 2024 The capacity utilization rate is still as high as 90%, indicating strong regional demand support. Taiwanese manufacturers have slowly withdrawn from the Chinese market in recent years. With the development of China's localization and substitution, the effect of US sanctions is still a question mark.
Related links: https://technews.tw/2024/12/20/semiconductor-kinetic-energy-2025-tsmc/
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